Saturday, April 16, 2011

Keeneland Bluegrass Stakes Pick: Queen'splatekitten

Bluegrass Stakes

#12: Queen'splatekitten
-12/1ML- I use to love the bluegrass as a Derby prep, but in recent years, the form just has held up with the advent of polytrack, but this is a great betting race. Santiva has form over the track and they're are several B grade runners like Crimson China, Wilkinson, and King Congie, who could step up and run.

But I'm going with the Woodbine shipper-Queen'splatekitten. Showed an nice turn of foot over the poly at woodbine and I love the connections confidence in prepping for the queen's plate (thus the name of the horse), south of the border. Don't like the post, but the horse will drop back and make a run.

Friday, April 15, 2011

Arkansas Derby Pick: The Factor

Yes, thats right, you're not going to hear anything different from me, then what anyone else is saying.

Looking over the race, I just don't see it being any other way and the reason is that this whole field, except for The Factor, seem to still be trying to find themselves.

Archarcharch, Elite Alex, Nehro...etc. They've all been on everyone's watch list, but what have they done? Of those, only Nehro has made any noise this year. And what is with all these trainer's adding blinkers for this race? Are they all thinking their going to challenge the favorite on the front end?

It semms, while every trainer in this race is still searching for the magic bullet, Baffert has his gun loaded and is taking dead aim on the derby. He knows what he's got. A fast horse with a high cruising speed, and he's trained him that way. Steady 6f works, putting the stamina in him. Getting him to harness that speed.

My guess is, the half split in the Arkansas Derby will be around 46 flat, and I just think that only plays further into the Factor's hands. I don't know if this colt can win the derby, but I think the race this weekend is his to lose.

Thursday, April 14, 2011

Uncle Mo has infection

Apparently the blood work cameback and said Uncle Mo has a GI tract Infection. It shouldn't effect his training for the Kentucky Derby. This could be a reason for a poor performance.

Santa Anita Selections: 4/14/11

Race 1: #9 Compass Rock- 8/1ML- I don't really like these 2f dashes for the babies, but its on the card, so lets take a shot with a colt thats bred to be quick, from a barn that gets horses running early. Note the jock brought over Los Al.

Race 2: #5 Park Time Luck-9/5- You just can't ignore Carava and La Canada in these races, short price favorite should get the job done. Best tactical speed and has the field at its mercy from the outside.

Race 3: #4 Rock Solid King-3/1ML- Good vibes from this one, PVal up.

Race 4: #1 Trumpet Player Jay-5/2ML- Should drop back and get a good trip in behind the speed. Will be coming late.

Race 5: #4 Trastevere-7/2ML- Will have improve a bit against these, but I don't like the fav in here and this colt looks to have the right style for the pace set up.

Race 6: #3 Highly Composed-12/1ML- Cassidy is a master with these horses. Has some of the best numbers at the distance in the field, should be there at a price.

Race 7: #4 Preamble-5/2ML- Well slotted against this group and loves the distance. Should be a bit better then the morning line with the 3 taking all the cash early.

Race 8: #3 Tiz O' Gold-4/1ML- Everyone will be playing the 1 and the 7, will get a good price on a filly thats already shown some ability. Fav's look suspect.

Wednesday, April 13, 2011

Barefoot Lady wins Nell Gwyn stakes

Barefoot Lady got the best of a blanket finish in the Nell Gwyn Stakes at Newmarket, just nosing out the Aiden O'Brian filly, Sing Softly.

Arthur's Tale out of Derby is reporting that Wood Memorial second place finisher, Arthur's Tale, popped a splint and is out of the Derby. His Trainer, Tom Albertrani, say the Bernardini colt will be pointed to the belmont. Let's hope for a quick recovery.

Aqueduct Selections: 4/13/11

Race 1: #3 Good Luck Lucy-2/1ML- I expect the 2 horse to take most of the play in here and leave this 3 horse as the best value in the race. Should get a good trip just off the speed.

Race 2: #2 Bwana Babe-2/1ML- I actually love the straight 1 in here, Halo Hollie, but the entry mate will kill all value and the 2 fits well in this race. Should provide the best value.

Race 3: #5 Zio Tony-12/1ML- Looking over this race, I just have a feeling that a price will emerge from this small field. This horse has good class ratings, quick 12 day turn around says he's ready to fire.

Race 4: #7 Dorian Will-6/1ML- The favorite looks strong in here, but it's hard to take 8/5 in a 14 horse field. The 7 has a tactical advantage and should get the jump on the 11. I expect a good price on this horse.

Race 5: #2 How's Bayou-2/5ML- Yeah, lone speed, class of the field and a jockey/trainer combo that hits at over 20%. Skip this race for straight bets, unless you can find value in horizontal plays.

Race 6: !/1a Banker's Buy-5/2ML- Zito entry looks strong in this mid-week stakes race.

Race 7: #8 Tutti Va Bene-25/1ML- Bombs Away. Not sure we'll get all of that morning line, this line seemed a bit off in this race. Expect 8 or 9 to 1.

Race 8: #6 Alla Prima-12/1ML-Zito and Lopez haven't teamed up with much success yet, but this filly has the best speed in the field and fits well in this class level. Should be a very fair price.

Race 9: #12 Glory Wit A Story-5/2ML- This bottom level Maiden turf races are always super tough. Only three horses have tried the distance before. This one is the best of that group.

Tuesday, April 12, 2011

Arkansas Derby: Looking back to Afleet Alex

The kentucky Derby is a dream, everyone who's even sniffed a racehorse wants to win it. But recently, I keep thinking back to a horse who didn't win it, but should have.

Afleet Alex

With the Arkansas Derby coming up this weekend and the horse of the moment 'The Factor' running, I thought we might look back to a past winner.

In 2005, Afleet Alex, a top two year old of 2004, was coming into the Arkansas Derby off a disappointing effort in the Rebel stakes, supposedly due to a lung infection that wasn't caught beforehand. Whatever the reason was, many felt that Afleet Alex just hadn't sustained his form from his 2 to 3 year old year, as often happens.

But instead of finishing up the track, Afleet Alex showed that he was going to be a force in the 2005 triple crown.

He would gone on to finish 3rd in the Kentucky Derby. Display unbelievable agility in winning the preakness (Still can't believe he didn't fall down, much less win). Then in what was to be the final race of his career, he used an indescribable kick to win the Belmont, perhaps the most devastating turn of foot I've ever seen.

I believe this colt was unlucky not to win the triple crown, he had all the tools, and showed that win luck abandoned him, he'd make his own. The mark of a true champion.

Turf Paradise Selections: 4/12/11

Race 1: #4 Protect The Ring- 5/1 ML

Race 2: #4 Lordgivemealift- 5/2ML- Chambers special

Race 3: #8 Worth A Lot-5/1ML- Looking for this one to make an improvement on the stretchout

Race 4: #4 Ilikechocolatemilk-2/1ML- Hard knockin horse, connections provide a positive ROI

Race 5: #8 Future Search-3/1ML- Strong pace from the outside and in against weaker.

Race 6: #3 Whatusaywhatumean-12/1ML- Looks to have a class edge. Jock has been riding well lately.

Race 7: #4 Fight On Gino-8/5 ML- Doesn't look beatable on paper, but you never know.

Race 8: #2 Havasu-6/1ML- Wide open race. The 2 should get a good trip behind the speed.

Race 9: #11 Cypress Sam-7/2ML- Best on paper if he can get tucked in from the outside post position. Should show good speed.

Monday, April 11, 2011

Kentucky Derby 2011: 4 weeks out

Head, meet wall.

This weekend was messier then the english language on an episode of the Jersey shore. We lost Premier Pegasus, we lost To Honor And Serve, Uncle Mo just plain lost; and Jaycito has a hoof bruise and will be trying to prep in the Lexington stakes at Keeneland.


That was my head against the wall.

What are we left with? The factor? A confirmed speedball, by a sprinter, out of a sprinter. Yay! That screams derby winner.

What about Santiva, or Toby's Corner? They hardly leave one breathless.

In the end, we're left with a wide open derby, like it always is, but if they're was ever a year to bet heavily on 'the field' this is it. We'll have to see what develops in the next few weeks, but at this point, the best word to describe the likely 2011 Kentucky Derby is...Boring.

Parx Racing Selections: 4/11/11

Race 1: #3 French Moon- Will Be the prohibitive favorite, but I can't get around him in here. Perhaps skip the race or try and find value in the horizontal bets. 1/1

Race 2: #7 Galofmydreams- Suspect group here. The seven should show some pace from the outside and get a good stalking position. We shall see. 6/1

Race 3: #6 Needtogetpaid- There isn't much seperating 3, maybe 4 of these. The six should have the tactical advantage. Once again, spread in horizontal bets. And my god, who names these horses? 3/1

Race 4: #6 Race Caller Luke- Looks like this one is exciting better races. Should get a decent price with the 9/1 morning line. 9/1

Race 5: #6 On the level- Looks to just be better then these....I'm starting to see a theme with my picks. 5/2

Race 6: #2 Quiet Link- The firster"s look like their going to get backed in here, but I don't like horses making their debut going a route of ground, especially at this level of competition. I'll go with the best of the experience. 6/1

Race 7: #3 Tar Beach- Not much between the top two choices in here, so we'll go with the better price. 4/1

Race 8: #8 See the forest- On numbers there might be better in here, but this horse appears to be moving in the right direction for the win. 5/1

Race 9: #3 Dapper Devil- I can't really say I like this race. There are a ton of different races to go and the pace looks to be pear shaped. 4/1

Race 10: #3 Big D- Horse stands out on numbers alone, should get a good trip tracking the speed. Place a wager and hope for the best. 3/1

Sunday, April 10, 2011

Joyful Victory wins Fantasy Stakes

Joyful Victory cruised to a convincing win in the Fantasy stakes at Oaklawn Park. The gray daughter of Tapit, appears to be one of the top choices for the Kentucky Oaks. Is it just me or are the fillies better then the colts this year?

Uncle Mo Grabbed a Quarter-Derby Trail News

The reported this morning that two year old champion Uncle Mo, grabbed a quarter coming out of the gate of the Wood Memorial. Todd Pletcher said it was only slight and shouldn't effect the colts preparations for the Kentucky derby, if he and owner Mike Repole, do indeed start they're champion in that race.

The feeling here, is that Uncle Mo was traveling well at the quarter pole and just got run down by a couple of improving three year olds, in Toby's Corner and Arthur's Tale.

Uncle Mo's connections are going to do some blood work on the colt in a few days, just to be sure it wasn't something else.

Fantasy Stakes Pick: Oaklawn Park

Joyful Victory: In 2002 I saw Azeri run at Del Mar in the Clement L. Hirsch. She was made of a different ilk, an absolute queen, before there was a Queen Z. So my heart lays with her swift daughter Arienza, who is coming off of two impressive scores over the track.

But my head is telling me Joyful Victory, the gray filly for Larry Jones, coming off of a powerful win in the Honeybee stakes, is too much horse.

We shall see.